Search results for "Dynamic Factor model"
showing 3 items of 3 documents
Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis
2009
Abstract In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997–1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.
Co-movement of public spending in the G7
2010
Abstract The size of government in the G7 countries in the last fifty years follows a common pattern (see the left panel of Fig. 1 below): it grows in the first three decades, and then turns flat at the beginning of the nineties, for all countries alike. We highlight this common pattern in a dynamic factor model, and argue that a satisfactory explanation for it would be desirable.
Forecasting industry sector default rates through dynamic factor models
2008
In this paper we use a reduced-form model for the analysis of portfolio credit risk. For this purpose, we fit a dynamic factor model to a large data set of default rate proxies and macro-variables for Italy. Multiple step ahead density and probability forecasts are obtained by employing both the direct and indirect methods of prediction together with stochastic simulation of the dynamic factor model. We first find that the direct method is the best performer regarding the out-of-sample projection of financial distressful events. In a second stage of the analysis, we find that reducedform portfolio credit risk measures obtained through the dynamic factor model are lower than those correspond…